A plain-language read of global, African and South African markets for investors.
General information only. This is not investment advice and does not take your goals, needs or circumstances into account. Figures are as reported by the sources listed below, on the dates shown. Speak to an adviser before you act on anything here.
Week under review: 14 to 21 October 2026. Updated on 21 October 2026, after the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). Download the PDF summary.
The week in five points
Oil set the tone. Brent traded near $109 to $111 a barrel, a five-month high, on Middle East supply fears linked to the Iran conflict.
Rate worries came back. Higher oil lifted inflation fears. The US 10-year yield moved back towards 5.15%, and markets price a high chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase in December.
AI shares corrected. The Nasdaq had its worst week since June. Investors questioned how the data-centre build-out is financed, though most US shares rose as money rotated.
Europe is nervous. Cost-of-living protests in France rattled stocks, bonds and the euro, and the CAC 40 sits about 10% below its August peak.
South AfricaSouth Africa’s budget update was better than feared. Higher revenue, a lower deficit and stabilising debt, but weaker growth and high fuel and inflation pressure.rsquo;s budget update showed fiscal progress. Higher revenue, a lower deficit and stabilising debt, but weaker growth and high fuel and inflation pressure.
Key numbers
Measure
Latest
Context
Brent crude
$109 to $111 a barrel
Five-month high. WTI about $99 to $104
Gold
About $4,124 an ounce
Eased for three sessions on higher yields. Has held $4,100 all month
US 10-year Treasury yield
About 5.14% to 5.15%
Briefly touched 5.33% after hot inflation data
US Federal Reserve
Hold expected on 27 to 28 October
Markets price about a 94% chance of a rate increase in December
UK 10-year gilt and German 10-year bund
About 5.44% and 3.45%
Elevated bond yields in Europe
Nikkei 225
64,916.70 (16 October close)
Fell 5.4% in the week to 16 October. Yen near 158.5 to the dollar
China GDP, third quarter
4.5% year on year
Above the 4.4% forecast, at the bottom of the 4.5% to 5% target range
Rand
About R16.6 to the dollar
Firmer ahead of the budget, after four weekly losses
South African CPI inflation, September
4.5% year on year
Target is 3%. Core inflation 4.0%. Fuel up 27.9%
SARB repo rate
7.25%
Raised by 0.25 percentage points in September
Global markets
Oil, rates and gold
Crude was the main driver. The oil spike renewed inflation and rate-increase worries, pushed bond yields up and dented hopes of near-term US rate cuts. Gold eased as yields rose. On geopolitics, the US President signed an order waiving certain sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy for 60 days, citing peace talks. It drew criticism in Washington.
United States
The prior week was the Nasdaq’s worst since June: down 4.5%, with the S&P 500 down 1.9%. The selling centred on AI and chip shares. Information technology fell 6.6%, semiconductors about 11% and Nvidia about 7%. Neo-cloud provider CoreWeave lost about 25%, and some of its debt traded at distressed levels. About seven in ten S&P 500 shares still rose, which points to rotation and not broad selling. The Nasdaq rebounded 1.1% on Monday 19 October. Netflix beat estimates but cut its advertising outlook and fell about 4.6%. Meta, Tesla and IBM report on 21 October, with Meta’s AI spending the key test.
Europe
Violent cost-of-living protests in France, which spread to parts of Italy, triggered stock and bond selling and weakened the euro. The CAC 40 is in correction territory, about 10% below its August peak. The EURO STOXX 50 is about 7% off its high, and the STOXX 600 closed at 638.64. France’s deficit and presidential elections in six months add to nerves. Strategists also note one of Europe’s best earnings seasons in years, which is helping to offset high oil and bond yields.
Asia
China’s economy is moving at two speeds. September exports rose 36.3% in US dollars and industrial output 5.5%, but retail sales grew only 1.1% and property investment is down 20.6% for the year. The IMF projects growth of 4.5% for 2026 and 4.0% for 2027. In Japan, the AI selloff hit shares: the Nikkei fell 5.4% in the week to 16 October and a further 1.1% on 20 October as SoftBank dropped 6.6% on reports that OpenAI may postpone its IPO. The weak yen prompted new intervention warnings, and a Bank of Japan rate rise in December is in focus. In Seoul, AI-infrastructure listing Ellis fell nearly 40% below its IPO price on debut despite heavy subscription, a warning for the AI trade.
Africa (excluding South Africa)
Egypt: the S&P Global PMI fell to 47.2 in September from 49.6, signalling a faster contraction. The EGX30 slipped to 53,553 and the pound trades near EGP 54.5 to the dollar.
Kenya: the PMI returned to expansion at 51.3 and the shilling is steady around KES 129 to 130. Nairobi is weighing a stake of roughly $500 million (10%) in Dangote’s planned $16 billion Lamu refinery.
Nigeria: the naira trades near N1,333 to the dollar. Public servants ended a three-day warning strike. Afreximbank is convening its AfSNET investment conference in Cross River State to advance sub-sovereign funding.
Ethiopia: joined the PAPSS cross-border payment network on 15 October. Security risk rose after Ethiopian forces took Tigray’s capital, Mekelle. A joint declaration by Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan points to a possible second front near Red Sea shipping lanes.
South Africa
Inflation and interest rates
September CPI rose to 4.5% from 4.4%, below the 4.7% expected but well above the Reserve Bank’s 3% target. Transport inflation reached 10.8% and fuel 27.9% (diesel up 46%) after record October fuel price rises. Petrol 95 rose R3.33 a litre to about R30. Core inflation eased to 4.0%. The Reserve Bank raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% in September. It expects inflation to average 4.4% in 2026 and to stay above 5% into the second quarter of 2027, because the oil shock and lost refining capacity keep fuel costs high.
Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement, 21 October 2026
Growth: the 2026 forecast was cut to 1.2% from 1.6% in February. Treasury projects 1.6% in 2027 and 2% by 2029.
Revenue: gross tax revenue for 2026/27 was revised up by R17.1 billion, largely because of higher precious-metal prices.
Deficit: 4.3% of GDP this year, down from 4.5% in February, falling to 2.5% by 2030.
Debt: debt to GDP stabilised at 78.4% in 2025/26, the first stabilisation in nearly two decades. Treasury projects 76.6% by 2030 and 66.6% by 2035.
Fuel levy relief: temporary cuts of R3 a litre on diesel and R1.50 on petrol, from 4 November to 1 December 2026.
Contingency reserve: raised to R10 billion in 2026/27 for drought and El Niño response and possible energy price spikes.
Ratings: Treasury expects the rating agencies to take note. Fitch and Moody’s update their South Africa reviews before the end of 2026.
Rand and shares
The rand firmed to around R16.6 to the dollar ahead of the budget and CPI, after four straight weekly losses driven by a strong dollar and high US yields. The JSE Top 40 has been under pressure, though miners are supported by high precious-metal prices.
What it means for different investors
These are themes to think about, not recommendations.
South African investors
Higher interest rates and fuel costs raise living costs, and cash earns less in real terms when inflation stays above target.
The rand reacts to US yields and oil as well as local news, so offshore holdings can move for reasons far from home.
Metal prices help revenue and the JSE miners, but they can reverse.
Global investors
Concentration in a few AI-linked shares raised the risk this week, even as most US shares rose.
High bond yields in the US, the UK and Europe compete with shares for money and put pressure on valuations.
Oil and geopolitics can change the rate outlook quickly.
African investors
Local currencies, such as the naira, shilling and pound, and local inflation shape returns in each market.
Oil, shipping lanes and security risk matter for Egypt, Ethiopia and East Africa.
Cross-border payment links such as PAPSS and development-finance conferences point to deeper regional markets over time.
What to watch
Date
Event
21 to 23 October
Meta and Tesla results and US flash PMIs
22 October
Bank of Korea decision (hold at 3.00% expected)
27 to 28 October
US Federal Reserve meeting
29 to 30 October
Bank of Japan decision
31 October
China October PMIs
4 November
South African local elections. Temporary fuel levy relief starts
19 November
SARB Monetary Policy Committee decision
By end of 2026
Fitch and Moody’s South Africa reviews
Sources
Investopedia and Yahoo Finance market news, 19 October 2026; Wealth Enhancement Group, Weekly Market Movers, 19 October 2026.
USAGOLD, FXStreet and Reuters precious metals report, 20 October 2026; Yahoo Finance gold price, 20 October 2026.
Reuters via Business Times, European stocks, 21 October 2026; Business Insider on the France protests, October 2026; The Guardian business live blog, 19 October 2026; Newsquawk, 19 October 2026.
Vantage Markets (National Bureau of Statistics and IMF data), China GDP, 19 October 2026; Japan Market Report, 20 October 2026; Nikkei CNBC, 20 October 2026.
Rio Times, African Pulse, 5 October 2026; African-Markets.com and Central Bank of Kenya, 19 October 2026; Afreximbank news releases, 14 to 15 October 2026.
Trading Economics and Statistics South Africa, September CPI; The National, 14 October 2026; fuel price adjustments from the SAPRA and the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources; Reuters via CNBC Africa on the rand and JSE; SARB repo rate, 23 September 2026.
Parliament of South Africa and GovernmentZA, 2026 MTBPS, 21 October 2026; Daily Maverick, 21 October 2026, for the budget figures.
This report is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not a guide to the future, and the value of investments can go down as well as up. Figures are as reported by the cited sources at the stated dates and may have changed. Brawne Protect (Pty) Ltd, authorised financial services provider, FSP 51198. Talk to us at info@brawne.co.za.
